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Markets, economists and policymakers have been fretting about inflation for months, worried that the trillions of dollars being spent in recent and future government stimulus programs could overheat the economy and send prices soaring. On May 12, 2021, the worrywarts seemed to have their fears confirmed when the April consumer price index shot up a …
Why the Inflation Rate Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story Read More »
Market Insights/April 6, 2021 On the third business day of every month, IHS Markit releases a Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for more than 40 worldwide economies. The US Services PMI is based on monthly questionnaire surveys collected from over 400 U.S. companies and cover topics like new business, employment and expectations going forward. And since …
In the third quarter, other than a modest steepening in the yield curve, the bond market essentially marked time. The 10-year US treasury note ended the third quarter at .69% versus .65% at the end of June. The two-year treasury declined from .15% at the end of June to .13% at the end of the …
The year 2020 started off with continued strong economic growth fueling the equity market to new highs. Bond yields remained low as inflation continued to be muted. Then the Coronavirus Pandemic hit and threw everything out of kilter. Beginning in early March the economy shut down across the US and growth fell off a cliff …
An uptick in economic activity caused bond yields to tick up modestly during the fourth quarter. In contrast to some foreign economies, US consumer and business spending rebounded. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the third time; the Fed Funds rate is now at 1.5-1.75%. Despite strong labor markets, inflation remains under control and …
In the fourth quarter of 2018, equity and bond markets reversed direction from trends established through most of the previous nine months. Tough talk on tariffs and more signs of a slowing economy both in the US and globally weighed on equities, while at the same time helping treasury bond prices advance (leading to lower …
The Federal Reserve again raised interest rates at its June meeting. The new range on the Fed Funds rate is now 1.75%-2%. We expect another two rate hikes this year which will bring this key short-term rate to as high as 2.5%. US growth remains strong and inflation has crept upward. The Fed will likely …
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