Contact Us


Send a Message

Get the latest news delivered to your inbox.

Newsletter

West Branch Capital Logo

Independent fee-only, minority owned SEC Registered Investment Adviser

Trump Tariffs 2.0 -- A Bump in the Road for Equities?

January 31, 2025

Tariffs are worthy of some attention because they can be impactful for the economy ...

By Ian Mahmud, Principal


On Truth Social after the election, then President-elect Trump said he would implement 25% tariffs on all products from both Canada and Mexico on “Day 1.” Trump more recently committed to a 10% tariff on all Chinese products sold in the United States. Trump commented to a reporter in the Oval Office that tariffs may be implemented “February 1.”


Tariffs are worthy of some attention because they can be impactful for the economy and because they can be enacted via executive order. Many economists and journalists have examined the potential impact of a 25% tariff on all products from Canada and Mexico, coupled with a 10% tariff on all products from China. The Washington DC based Tax Foundation, for example, estimates that the tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China would reduce long-run U.S. GDP by 0.4% (0.3% from the Mexico / Canada tariffs and 0.1% from the tariffs on China). Their analysis excludes the impact of any potential retaliatory tariffs.


However, we believe reviewing Trump’s tariffs from his last presidency is perhaps more helpful in understanding what may happen next and evaluating the potential impact on US equity markets. The tariffs during Trump’s first term focused on products from China and on steel and aluminum products from many countries.

 

China Tariffs: In March 2018, the Trump administration pursued tariffs on targeted products from China, including a tariff of 25% on up to ~$60bn in products. In September 2018, a 10% tariff was placed on an additional ~$200bn in products. In May 2019, the 10% tariff was increased to 25%. Over the following months, the administration continued to expand the number of targeted products and aimed to increase tariff rates. However, by December 2019, a “Phase One” trade deal was reached with China wherein many  contemplated tariff increases were not implemented.


Steel and Aluminum Tariffs:  In March 2018, a 25% tariff was implemented for all steel imports and 10% for all aluminum imports. Many countries were given exemptions from the tariff. Later in 2018, additional exceptions and tariff reductions were given. Australia was fully exempt and a quota system (rather than a blanket tariff) was implemented for steel products from Brazil and South Korea. A quota system was implemented in place of a tariff on aluminum products from Argentina. In May of 2019, the administration lifted all steel and aluminum tariffs from Canada and Mexico. Subsequently, there was some expansion in scope of these tariffs and tariffs on Canada were briefly re-imposed before being lifted again.

 

Stock Market Performance: The stock market did not perform well in 2018. For the year, the S&P 500 declined by 6.2% (excluding dividends). Many journalists and Wall Street analysts point to the US tariffs (and the resulting retaliatory tariffs) as an important driver for the market declines. However, we would also observe that the biggest swoon in the market occurred toward the end of 2018 when the Fed increased interest rates by a quarter point. In our view, the rate hiking cycle may have been more impactful for the market than the tariffs and concerns about their impact on GDP growth.


Further, the “Trade War” period can perhaps be best defined as beginning in March of 2018 when the initial China and steel / aluminum tariffs were imposed to the end of 2019 when the “Phase One” agreement was reached with China. By the end of 2019, the more serious escalation of tariffs generally came to a halt. During that time (from March 1, 2018 to December 31, 2019), the S&P 500 rose ~20%.


The implementation of tariffs during Trump’s last presidency was followed by negotiations and reductions in tariffs over time. Many of the tariffs did remain in place. However, tariffs were not far reaching or high enough to severely weaken the U.S. economy. Stocks for the leading U.S. companies were able to perform well, driven by a still growing economy, improving earnings and a more accommodative Fed.


This time around, Trump has said the tariffs would apply to almost all goods from three countries (Canada, Mexico and China), rather than just products sold by targeted industries. However, if history repeats itself, we could see the initial policy position followed by negotiation, de-escalation and reduction in tariffs over time. In the short-run, we might see the stock market react negatively to tariffs and retaliatory tariffs. Beyond that point, we think corporate earnings (which admittedly could be influenced by tariffs), Fed policy and potentially a further reduction in corporate tax rates will be the more important drivers for US equities.

Source: YCharts

If you have any question about tariffs or other topics, reach out any time (413) 256-1225 x2 or info@westbranchcapital.com.


The views and information contained in this article and on this website are those of West Branch Capital LLC and are provided for general information. The information herein should not serve as the sole determining factor for making legal, tax, or investment decisions. All information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but West Branch Capital LLC does not guarantee its reliability. West Branch Capital LLC is not an attorney, accountant or actuary and does not provide legal, tax, accounting or actuarial advice.

Recent Articles

January 30, 2025
The IRS issued final rules in July 2024.
By Anne Christopulos January 30, 2025
Repeal of the Windfall Elimination Provision
November 8, 2024
How do my income taxes affect my Medicare premiums? Although most Medicare enrollees are paying a Medicare Part B premium of $174.70 in 2024, many people pay much more. Prior to 2007, everyone received the same 75% subsidy from the government and paid the same premium. Then IRMAA (Income Related Monthly Adjustment Amount) was implemented, which established a bracket system for both Part B and Part D (prescriptions). The higher your income, the lower the subsidy and the higher your Medicare premium. Because Medicare uses your tax return from two years prior to determine your premium for the coming year, your 2024 premium was based on your 2022 tax return. The specific income figure used is Modified Adjusted Gross Income, which adds tax-exempt income to the AGI figure you see on your tax return. Sometimes, the higher premium comes as a shock, after a year of unusually high income, perhaps due to a capital gain from the sale of a home. But if that is the case, the higher premium will only be applied for one year, and once income declines, so will the premium. It’s important to know that if there has been a life-changing event that reduced your household income, such as retirement or the loss of a spouse, you can apply to have the premium lowered. Are there ways to limit the higher premiums? There may be. First, avoid (if possible) making large withdrawals from your tax-deferred retirement plans, including Traditional IRAs and 401(k)s, in a single year, or taking a very large capital gain on a stock sale in a nonretirement account in any one tax year. Instead, try to spread the IRA withdrawals or capital gains over two or more years, or take a capital loss if you have any in your nonretirement account. You also may be able to make a tax-deductible IRA contribution to lower your AGI below the IRMAA threshold, as long as you had earned income during the year and qualify for a deduction. Are my charitable contributions deductible? Ever since the 2017 tax law increased the standard deduction (while eliminating the personal exemption), most people do not see a reduction their taxes as a result of making charitable contributions. However, there are some exceptions. Taxpayers whose total itemized deductions (medical expenses above a certain threshold, mortgage interest, state and local taxes up to $10,000, charitable contributions) exceed their standard deduction can lower their taxes with charitable contributions. There is also something called a Qualified Charitable Deduction (QCD), available to IRA owners over age 70½. Under current tax law, you can instruct your IRA custodian to send your contribution directly from your IRA to the qualified charity or send you the check made out to the charity, which you can forward, rather than making the charitable contribution yourself. This has the same effect as a tax deduction because it lowers the amount of your taxable IRA distributions. It may also lower your AGI enough to reduce your Medicare premium or your capital gains rate. Withdrawals to make a QCD can count toward your Required Minimum Distribution for the year. Additional points on charitable deductions: (1) Most of the provisions in the 2017 tax law expire in 2025, so in 2026 we could see reinstated personal exemptions and a return to lower standard deductions, which would make charitable contributions more likely to lower your tax liability. (2) Some states, including Massachusetts (cash contributions only) and New York, allow a charitable deduction against income for state income taxes. How much of my Social Security income is taxed? There is a rather complicated formula that determines the taxable portion of your Social Security benefits. The formula adds half of your Social Security income to your AGI plus your tax-exempt income to get provisional income. If that figure falls under $25,000 (single filer) or $32,000 (joint filer), none of the benefits are taxable, which is the case for about 60% of recipients, who have little or no income other than Social Security. The other 40% pay tax on between 1% and 85% of their Social Security income, but no more than 85%, regardless of how much additional income they have. As time goes on, more and more people pay tax on more and more of their SS income, because the formula does not get adjusted for inflation every year, unlike with most other tax figures and unlike with SS benefits themselves. Note: State taxation of Social Security varies, with some states, including Massachusetts, not taxing it at all. What is the Net Investment Income Tax? Most taxpayers do not pay this tax, which came into being in 2013 to help cover the cost of the Medicare program. The approximately 5% of taxpayers who are subject to the tax have AGI of over $250,000 (joint) or $200,000 (single). The 3.8% tax is applied to either (1) the amount by which AGI exceeds these thresholds, or (2) the amount of net taxable investment income, whichever is lower. The same strategies discussed above regarding Medicare premiums could also be employed to minimize this tax. When I get a cost-of-living raise at work, will that push me into a higher income tax bracket? While a large raise at work could push you into a higher income tax bracket, if your raise is roughly equivalent to the inflation rate, it should not affect your marginal tax bracket. Every year, most tax figures, including tax bracket boundaries and the standard deduction, are adjusted to reflect increases in inflation, as measured by the “chained CPI”, an alternative to the traditional consumer price index, which attempts to account for the effects of product substitution on changes in the cost of living. Some figures, such as maximums for IRAs and 401(k) contributions, are adjusted only in years when applying the CPI rounds the figure up to the next increment, usually $500. What will happen to federal income tax rates and estate taxes in 2026? If Congress does nothing, most of the provisions of the 2017 tax legislation will expire and revert to the higher tax rate structure that was previously in place. However, leaders of both major political parties are not in favor of raising tax rates for taxpayers with less than $400,000 in income. The parties disagree on taxes for taxpayers with incomes above $400,000. There are also differences between the two parties on future of the estate tax exclusion, which will rise to $13,990,000 per person in 2025 but will fall to about half that in 2026 without action by Congress. Annual gifting is one way to lower one’s taxable estate. The annual gift tax exclusion in 2024 is $18,000 per person per donee for 2024 and is adjusted for inflation in $1,000 increments. As always, if you have any questions about taxes, please reach us any time at (833) 888-0534 x2 or info@westbranchcapital.com The views and information contained in this article and on this website are those of West Branch Capital LLC and are provided for general information. The information herein should not serve as the sole determining factor for making legal, tax, or investment decisions. All information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but West Branch Capital LLC does not guarantee its reliability. West Branch Capital LLC is not an attorney, accountant or actuary and does not provide legal, tax, accounting or actuarial advice.

Share Article

Share by: